It was 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach berated him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. After the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a side who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they appear curiously susceptible – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent just inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the player he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
